Published: November 5, 2025 | By Gabriel Denny

In combat, you plan for multiple futures simultaneously.

Managing $33 billion in Iraq taught me: single-point planning is reckless. You need scenarios.

The Three-Scenario Framework

Scenario 1: Best Case

What if everything goes right?

• Revenue exceeds plan
• Costs stay on budget
• No major disruptions

Plan for: How to deploy extra cash (hiring, growth, reserves)

Scenario 2: Most Likely Case

What do we actually expect?

• Revenue hits 90-100% of target
• Some unexpected expenses
• Normal operational friction

Plan for: Standard operations, minor adjustments

Scenario 3: Worst Case

What if things go wrong?

• Revenue drops 20%+
• Major customer loss
• Unexpected large expense

Plan for: Cost cuts, runway extension, survival mode

How to Build Scenarios

Step 1: Identify key variables (revenue, costs, cash)

Step 2: Model each scenario

Step 3: Set trigger points ("If revenue drops below $X, we execute scenario 3")

Step 4: Pre-plan responses for each scenario

Combat Example

In Iraq, we planned for:

• Best case: Missions go as planned, budget sufficient
• Most likely: Some delays, minor overruns, manageable
• Worst case: Major equipment loss, supply chain failure, emergency funding needed

When worst case happened (it did), we executed pre-planned contingencies. No panic, just execution.

The Bottom Line

Hope is not a strategy. Single-point forecasts are wishful thinking.

Scenario planning means you're prepared for what actually happens—not just what you hope happens.

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About Gabriel Denny

Managed $33B using three-scenario planning. Never caught unprepared. Now helping businesses do the same.