The 70% Rule: Military Decision-Making Under Pressure Good decisions now beat perfect decisions too late

Published: March 2, 2026 | By Gabriel Denny

In Iraq, we had a rule: if you have 70% of the information you need, make the decision.

Why 70%? Because waiting for 100% certainty means the decision gets made for you—usually badly.

Aircraft don't wait for perfect data before they need fuel. Missions don't pause while you gather one more report. Combat teaches you: a good decision now beats a perfect decision too late.

Most business leaders I meet are waiting for perfect information. Meanwhile, the market moves, competitors act, and opportunities close.

Here's how to make better decisions faster using the 70% Rule.

The Problem: Analysis Paralysis

I see this constantly in growing businesses:

  • "Let's wait another quarter to see the trend..."
  • "I need one more forecast scenario before we decide..."
  • "Let's table this until we have more data..."

The problem? Perfect information doesn't exist.

By the time you have 100% certainty, the decision has either been made for you or the opportunity has passed.

The 70% Framework

Step 1: Define What "Good Enough" Looks Like

Before gathering data, ask: What information do I actually need to make this decision?

Example: Should we hire a new sales rep?

Need to know:

  • Can we afford it? (cash flow forecast)
  • Is there demand to support it? (pipeline data)
  • Do we have onboarding capacity? (current team bandwidth)

Don't need to know:

  • Exact ROI down to the dollar
  • Competitor hiring plans
  • Perfect market timing

Focus on what's necessary, not what's nice to have.

Step 2: Set a Decision Deadline

In combat, deadlines are built-in. Aircraft need fuel by 1400 hours. Missions launch at 0600.

In business, create artificial deadlines:

  • "We decide by Friday, regardless of what data we have"
  • "If we don't have clarity by month-end, we proceed with Plan B"

Why this works: Deadlines force prioritization. You focus on gathering the right information, not all information.

Step 3: Gather Until 70% or Deadline (Whichever Comes First)

Once you hit 70% confidence or reach your deadline, stop gathering and decide.

How do you know you're at 70%?

  • You understand the core trade-offs
  • You can articulate the risks
  • You have enough data to defend the decision
  • Additional information won't meaningfully change your view

Step 4: Decide and Execute

Once you decide, commit. Don't second-guess or wait for more validation.

In combat, we made billion-dollar decisions with incomplete data. We didn't have the luxury of reconsidering.

Business leaders have the same constraint—they just don't realize it.

Step 5: Build in Checkpoints to Adjust

The 70% Rule doesn't mean "decide and forget."

It means: decide, execute, and course-correct as you go.

Set checkpoints:

  • "We'll review this decision in 30 days"
  • "If X metric doesn't improve by Y date, we pivot"
  • "We'll reassess quarterly"

This gives you permission to decide without perfect information—because you know you can adjust later.

When NOT to Use the 70% Rule

The 70% Rule works for most decisions. But not all.

Don't use it for:

  • Irreversible decisions (selling the company, taking on massive debt)
  • Decisions with catastrophic downside (closing operations, mass layoffs)
  • Compliance/legal issues (where 100% certainty is required)

For everything else? 70% is enough.

Real Examples from Business

Example 1: Hiring Decision

70% confidence: Candidate has relevant experience, good references, fits culture, affordable salary.

Don't wait for: Perfect résumé, guarantee they'll stay 5 years, certainty they'll hit quota.

Decision: Hire and build in 90-day review checkpoint.

Example 2: Pricing Change

70% confidence: Competitors charge 20% more, customers indicate willingness to pay, margins support increase.

Don't wait for: Perfect elasticity model, customer surveys with 95% confidence interval.

Decision: Increase pricing 15%, monitor churn for 60 days, adjust if needed.

Example 3: Software Investment

70% confidence: Tool solves real problem, ROI payback in 12 months, team willing to adopt.

Don't wait for: Perfect vendor comparison, guarantee of zero implementation issues.

Decision: Purchase with 90-day trial period, reassess at checkpoint.

The Bottom Line

Perfect information is a myth. Waiting for it is a trap.

Combat taught me: 70% is enough. Make the decision, execute with discipline, and course-correct as you learn.

The businesses that move fast with good information beat the businesses that move slow with perfect information.

Every. Single. Time.

Struggling with decision paralysis?

Schedule a Financial Health Assessment and I'll help you identify the 70% threshold for your biggest decisions.

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About Gabriel Denny

Retired Air Force Major who made billion-dollar decisions with 70% information in combat. Now teaching business leaders to do the same.

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